Today the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. We'll discuss this in more detail throughout this report.
We have a beautiful gap up on the weekly chart. The weekly PMO is rising again suggesting all-time highs aren't that far away.
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Also today, the S&P 100 ETF (OEF) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Price has overcome resistance and the coast seems clear up to all-time highs. Participation did contract on today's rally but remains at very robust levels. The Silver Cross Index is rising strongly above its signal line giving us a bullish IT Bias.
This looks like a convincing bottom with a likely move to all-time highs given the rising weekly PMO.
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Also today, the Nasdaq Composite ETF (ONEQ) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Price has overcome resistance and the next level of resistance is at all-time highs. The Golden Cross Index is almost above its signal line. The Silver Cross Index is rising strongly showing a bullish IT Bias. Participation looks healthy enough, but given the strength of this rally we would expect it to be a little bit better. Still this looks like a good setup for a move to all-time highs.
A resistance zone was cleared this week and the weekly PMO is rising again above the zero line suggesting more upside ahead.
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Also today, the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Price is nearing resistance and could stumble there as the RSI is getting overbought. Participation is outstanding so it could continue to make its way higher from here. The Golden Cross Index needs to get back above its signal line, but the Silver Cross Index is making its way higher above its signal line so the IT Bias is bullish.
Here is another weekly chart with a rising weekly PMO. The gap up move looks very bullish and suggests we could see price get back to all-time highs.
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Also today, the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. This group has been a beneficiary of this strong market move higher. Participation is incredibly strong right now, but that means there isn't anywhere to go but down. We think these overbought conditions could hold up for some time given the vertically rising Silver Cross Index.
The weekly chart shows a strong gap up move. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover BUY Signal. We would expect more upside ahead.
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Finally, the Retail ETF (XRT) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross) generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. XRT still has two areas of resistance that need to be broken. The rally is beginning to stall and this area could be subject to the tariffs in a big way. We still see upside ahead given strong participation, it just may not move that high that fast as compared to some other areas of the market. Participation is strong and the Silver Cross Index is rising strongly. The Golden Cross Index has just had a Bullish Shift across the signal line giving us a bullish LT Bias.
After dropping out of the bearish rising wedge, price rebounded before having to test support at 55. We have a gap up move, but resistance is nearing. The weekly PMO is on the rise so we probably should look for a breakout.
The DecisionPoint Alert Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the Stock Market, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. The DecisionPoint Alert daily report (Monday through Thursday) is abbreviated and gives updates on the Weekly Wrap assessments.
MARKET/INDUSTRY GROUP/SECTOR INDEXES
CLICK HERE for Carl's annotated Market Index, Sector, and Industry Group charts.
THE MARKET (S&P 500)
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/16/2025
SPY 10-Minute Chart: Price was in a holding pattern today. There were no headlines to drive volatility. It appears to be consolidating the recent gains.
SPY Daily Chart: As noted above, we had a Silver Cross on the SPY today. Price continues to inch higher despite recent upside exhaustion climaxes. We should see a Golden Cross of the 50/200-day EMAs very soon. The PMO is rising strongly and the RSI still isn't overbought yet so more upside could be accommodated. All-time highs aren't that far away.
The VIX did turn down on the inverted scale. It is still above its moving average but this small decline could mean that fear may be creeping back in. For now, it is bullish above the moving average. Stochastics are nearing 100 and tell us there is plenty of internal strength to push price higher.
S&P 500 New 52-Week Highs/Lows: We saw a negative divergence today as New Highs dropped on today's price gain. The High-Low Differential did top today in spite of the rally. New Lows are expanding in spite of the rally which suggests to us there may be some issues with the rally.
Climax* Analysis: There were no climax readings today.
*A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in, primarily, breadth and volume indicators. We also include the VIX, watching for it to penetrate outside the Bollinger Band envelope. The vertical dotted lines mark climax days -- red for downside climaxes, and green for upside. Climaxes are at their core exhaustion events; however, at price pivots they may be initiating a change of trend.
Short-Term Market Indicators: The short-term market trend is UP and the condition is NEUTRAL.
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) were mixed today. The STO-B topped and the STO-V continued to rise. There may be some issues arising with this rally. Participation fell today in spite of the rally and we lost some rising momentum internally. %PMOs Rising shows a declining trend which sets up a negative divergence with rising prices.
Intermediate-Term Market Indicators: The intermediate-term market trend is UP and the condition is OVERBOUGHT.
The ITBM and ITVM were also mixed today. The breadth component like the STO-B turned down on the day. The ITVM still looks bullish. Both the ITBM and ITVM are overbought so it isn't good to see the ITBM fall today. %PMO Xover BUY Signals had already topped. Today the indicator dropped below its signal line.
PARTICIPATION CHART (S&P 500): The following chart objectively shows the depth and trend of participation for the SPX in two time frames.
- Intermediate-Term - the Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA). The opposite of the Silver Cross is a "Dark Cross" -- those stocks are, at the very least, in a correction.
- Long-Term - the Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA). The opposite of a Golden Cross is the "Death Cross" -- those stocks are in a bear market.
The market bias is BULLISH in the intermediate term and long term.
Participation is strong but could be stronger than what we have. Readings aren't quite overbought yet. Both the Silver and Golden Cross Indexes look very bullish on their rise. The Golden Cross Index is getting close to our bullish 50% threshold. Both are above their signal lines so the IT and LT Biases are BULLISH.
BIAS Assessment: The following table expresses the current BIAS of various price indexes based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA (intermediate-term), and of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA (long-term). When the Index is above the EMA it is bullish, and it is bearish when the Index is below the EMA. The BIAS does not imply that any particular action should be taken. It is information to be used in the decision process.
The items with highlighted borders indicate that the BIAS changed today.
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CONCLUSION: We saw some consolidation today. That could be enough to generate higher prices, but with some of our indicators showing bearish tendencies, we think that the market will see an exhale. It is doubtful that it will be enough to stop this rally train in its tracks. We could use the decline to keep the RSI out of overbought territory. The STO-B and ITBM topped and we saw a few negative divergences today as participation pared back on the rally and we saw fewer New Highs. Look for a possible pullback. It will offer us some good entries. PPI and jobless claims will be released so we could see some volatility associated with their results.
Erin is 70% long, 0% short. (This is intended as information, not a recommendation.)
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CALENDAR
BITCOIN
Bitcoin saw some decline today. This was good as it moved the RSI out of overbought territory. The rising trend looks sturdy. The PMO is still rising. Stochastics did take a turn for the worse, but they are still above 80 which signifies strength.
BITCOIN ETFs
INTEREST RATES
Yields are back on the rise and we expect this condition to continue as they make their way back to 2025 highs.
The Yield Curve Chart from StockCharts.com shows us the inversions taking place. The red line should move higher from left to right. Inversions are occurring where it moves downward.
10-YEAR T-BOND YIELD
We do expect yields to stay elevated, but we note a bearish rising wedge on $TNX. This could mean a small decline is ahead. We doubt it will result in a big decline given the PMO and Stochastics look so bullish. $TNX could continue higher from here, but given it is at resistance, a small decline would make sense.
BONDS (TLT)
IT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/14/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 12/13/2024
TLT Daily Chart: Yesterday's comments still apply:
"Bonds are struggling as yields continue to push higher. TLT is likely to hit support soon. The RSI is negative and the PMO is dropping below the zero line. Stochastics are extremely weak below 20."
DOLLAR (UUP)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 3/5/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 4/25/2025
UUP Daily Chart: The Dollar rallied today but displayed a lower low and lower high. The rising trend is still intact and the PMO is rising so we do expect more upside out of the Dollar. However, Stochastics have topped so it may be a slow move upward.
GOLD
IT Trend Model: BUY as of 1/10/2025
LT Trend Model: BUY as of 10/20/2023
GLD Daily Chart: Gold looks very bearish right now. We have a bearish double top formation that was confirmed with today's drop beneath the confirmation line. The RSI is now negative and the PMO is falling. The downside target of the double top pattern would take price to about 270.
Stochastics have dropped below 20 signifying internal weakness. Discounts are elevated so we have plenty of bearish sentiment out there. Gold is showing relative weakness to the Dollar and with the Dollar looking fairly bullish, this will weigh heavy on Gold.
GOLD MINERS (GDX) Daily Chart: The correction continues on Gold Miners. They are likely to continue rolling downward given the weakness in Gold. Participation is falling off the map and Stochastics are very bearish below 20. The Silver Cross Index is plummeting. Expect more downside.
CRUDE OIL (USO)
IT Trend Model: NEUTRAL as of 2/27/2025
LT Trend Model: SELL as of 3/18/2025
USO Daily Chart: Crude Oil hit the overhead resistance zone and declined. We believe it is vulnerable to more decline given production levels are fairly high for OPEC+. We are likely to bolster our production in order to push prices lower. This is key to curbing inflation on most goods. If it costs less to ship, it should bring prices down. The indicators are bullish right now, but we think it is in for a downturn. If it does break out here, that would confirm a bullish double bottom and we would switch to bullish at that time.
Good Luck & Good Trading!
Erin Swenlin and Carl Swenlin
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin
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NOTE: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals, specifically, the DecisionPoint Trend Model. They define the implied bias of the price index based upon moving average relationships, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
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