The market was down to start the week. It is overdue for a decline. I was happy that while the scans didn't see a large amount of results, there were some good selections today. I even have a runner-up list for you.
It wasn't a surprise to see a smattering of Consumer Staples stocks as that was where the action was today. I did find one that is a winner that should keep on winning, particularly if the market struggles. Investors will start hiding out in defensive groups like Staples.
I have one today that has very nice upside potential in the near term. Many of today's selections offer good upside potential in the intermediate term, but Thryv (THRY) does look especially interesting in the short term.
I have a Materials stock and a Real Estate stock to round things out. I didn't see any good Technology stocks come through so it is likely time for these stocks to pull back a bit. THRY is in Communication Services which is growth so it should give us good exposure.
Good Luck & Good Trading,
Erin
Today's "Diamonds in the Rough": CTRE, DLTR, OI and THRY.
Runner-ups: AVAV, VZ, PTGX and BRO.
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Carl has decided to retire, and Erin will be joining him in retirement. We will continue publication until June 27th, and we have already sent email on how your subscription will be affected. Please get in touch if you have any questions.
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Diamond Mine Trading Room:
RECORDING & DOWNLOAD LINK (5/16/2025):
Topic: DecisionPoint Diamond Mine (5/16/2025) LIVE Trading Room
Download & Recording Link
Passcode: May#16th
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When: May 23, 2025 09:00 AM Pacific Time (US and Canada)
Topic: DecisionPoint Diamond Mine LIVE Trading Room
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Welcome to DecisionPoint Diamonds, wherein I highlight ten "Diamonds in the Rough" per week. These are selected from the results of my DecisionPoint Scans which search for stocks that could benefit from the trend and condition of the market. Remember, these are not recommendations to buy or sell, but are the most interesting of the stocks that surfaced in my scans. My objective is to save you the work of the initial, tedious culling process, but you need to apply your own analysis to see if these stocks pique your interest as well. There are no guaranteed winners here!
"Predefined Scans Triggered" are taken from StockCharts.com using the "Symbol Summary" option instead of a "SharpChart" on the workbench.
Stop levels are all rounded down.
CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)
EARNINGS: 2025-07-31 (AMC)
CareTrust REIT, Inc. engages in the ownership, acquisition, and leasing of healthcare-related properties. It offers independent living, memory care, and assisted, and skilled nursing facilities. The company was founded on October 29, 2013 and is headquartered in San Clemente, CA.
Predefined Scans Triggered: Parabolic SAR Buy Signals.
CTRE is up +0.10% in after-hours trading. I like the rising trend and breakout. I also like that the EMAs are configured positively with fastest on top to slowest on the bottom. I also like that the PMO is flat above the zero line implying pure strength. The RSI is positive and not at all overbought. Stochastics are back above 80. Relative strength lines are all on the rise. We also have a rounded bottom. The stop is set below the first line of support at 6.9% or $27.56.
We have a large bull flag on the weekly chart and price is making its way out of it. The weekly RSI is positive and not overbought. The weekly PMO is rising on a Crossover BUY Signal. The OBV is also rising with price. The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) is not actually in the hot zone* yet, but it has turned back up very close to it. Consider a 17% upside target to $34.64.
*If a stock is in the "hot zone" above 70, it implies that it is stronger than 70% of its universe (large-, mid-, small-caps and ETFs) primarily in the intermediate to long terms.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
EARNINGS: 2025-06-11 (BMO)
Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at fixed prices. It operates through the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The Dollar Tree segment includes operations under Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, with its distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The Family Dollar segment consists of a chain of general merchandise retail discount stores providing consumers with a selection of competitively priced merchandise in convenient neighborhood stores. The company was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1953 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.
Predefined Scans Triggered: Moved Above Upper Bollinger Band, Elder Bar Turned Green, Moved Above Upper Price Channel, Parabolic SAR Buy Signals, New CCI Buy Signals and Moved Above Upper Keltner Channel.
DLTR is down -0.25% in after hours trading. This one just keeps breaking out on a nice rising trend. This came off the Surge Scan which picks up PMO bottoms above the signal line. This is why we do have a stock that is overbought right now. I think that condition will persist as this is a very healthy rally. The PMO is flattening above the zero line indicating pure strength. Stochastics are rising and are near 80. We have excellent relative strength as all three lines are on rising trends. The stop is set beneath support at 7.3% or $84.00.
I really like this breakout out of a congestion zone. There is plenty of upside potential and the weekly RSI is not overbought so it can accommodate more upside. The weekly PMO just entered positive territory and is on an oversold Crossover BUY Signal. The SCTR is well within the hot zone above 70.
Owens Illinois, Inc. (OI)
EARNINGS: 2025-07-29 (AMC)
O-I Glass, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of glass products. It offers products to the food and beverage sectors. It operates through the Americas and Europe geographical segments. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Perrysburg, OH.
Predefined Scans Triggered: Elder Bar Turned Green, Bullish 50/200 MA Crossovers and P&F Double Top Breakout.
OI is unchanged in after-hours trading. The flag formation got me on this one, combined with the new Golden Cross of the 50/200-day EMAs. The RSI is not overbought yet. This came through on the Surge Scan so we have a PMO bottom above the signal line. It is also reading at a very high level. The OBV is rising with price confirming the rising trend. Stochastics are shifting higher in positive territory. Relative strength for the group is improving slowly. OI has struggled recently against the group and the SPY, but over time it is still outperforming. We're also seeing an uptick on relative strength. The stop is set below support at 7% or $12.90.
This one is also rallying out of congestion zone. There is plenty of upside potential here if it gets to the 2024 high. The weekly RSI is positive and the weekly PMO is rising above the zero line on a Crossover BUY Signal. The SCTR is inside the hot zone.
Thryv Holdings Inc. (THRY)
EARNINGS: 2025-08-07 (BMO)
Thryv Holdings, Inc. engages in providing marketing solutions and cloud-based tools. It operates through the following business segments: Thryv Marketing Services and Thryv SaaS. The Thryv Marketing Services segment includes the print and digital solutions business. Thryv SaaS segment includes the SaaS flagship all-in-one small business management platform. The company was founded on August 17, 2012 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX.
Predefined Scans Triggered: Elder Bar Turned Blue and Bullish Engulfing.
THRY is up +3.43% in after-hours trading so there is something up with this stock. I could've annotated a flag formation, but it isn't textbook. We do have a solid rising trend and the 20-day EMA is about to cross above the 50-day EMA for a Silver Cross. The RSI is positive and not at all overbought. This is another Surge Scan winner so we have a PMO bottom above the signal line. Stochastics have turned back up in positive territory. The group near-term isn't performing that great, but it is still in a rising trend for relative strength. I was unhappy that this one is not outperforming the industry group, but it is starting to outperform the SPY. The stop is set beneath support at 7.6% or $13.21.
It's not a very good weekly chart as we see a declining trend in price out of the 2024 high. The weekly RSI is not positive yet and the SCTR is not yet in the hot zone. The weekly PMO does look interesting though as it nears a Crossover BUY Signal. It is below the zero line so we don't want to get too bullish in the intermediate term.
Don't forget, on Thursdays I look at reader-requested symbols, click HERE to send me an email. I read every email I receive and try to answer them all!
Current Market Outlook:
Market Environment: It is important to consider the odds for success by assessing the market tides. The following chart uses different methodologies for objectively showing the depth and trend of participation for intermediate- and long-term time frames.
- The Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on IT Trend Model BUY signals (20-EMA > 50-EMA)
- The Golden Cross Index (GCI) shows the percentage of SPX stocks on LT Trend Model BUY signals (50-EMA > 200-EMA)
Don't forget that as a "Diamonds" member, you have access to our "Under the Hood" curated ChartList on DecisionPoint.com. You'll find it under "Members Only" links on the left side on the Blogs and Links Page.
Here is the current chart:
Full Disclosure: I am 70% long, 0% short.
I'm required to disclose if I currently own a stock I mention and/or may buy/short it within the next 72 hours.
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NOTE: The stocks reported herein are from mechanical trading model scans that are based upon moving average relationships, momentum and volume. DecisionPoint analysis is then applied to get five selections from the scans. The selections given should prompt readers to do a chart review using their own analysis process. This letter is not a call for a specific action to buy, sell or short any of the stocks provided. There are NO sure things or guaranteed returns on the daily selection of "Diamonds in the Rough."
Regarding BUY/SELL Signals: The signal status reported herein is based upon mechanical trading model signals and crossovers. They define the implied bias of the price index/stock based upon moving average relationships and momentum, but they do not necessarily call for a specific action. They are information flags that should prompt chart review. Further, they do not call for continuous buying or selling during the life of the signal. For example, a BUY signal will probably (but not necessarily) return the best results if action is taken soon after the signal is generated. Additional opportunities for buying may be found as price zigzags higher, but the trader must look for optimum entry points. Conversely, exit points to preserve gains (or minimize losses) may be evident before the model mechanically closes the signal.
Helpful DecisionPoint Links:
Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)
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